Asia markets cautious ahead of U.S. jobs report, trade deal deadline

Asia stock markets saw muted performance on Thursday as market participants assessed a confluence of factors, which included the upcoming resolution of U.S. trade agreements, with a deadline set for July 9, alongside recently published services sector data from China and Australia’s latest trade balance. As the July 9th deadline approaches, the U.S. has finalized only three trade agreements: with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Global market sentiment was also tempered by anticipation of today’s U.S. jobs report, a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Gold declined to around $3,340 per ounce on Thursday, giving back some of the gains from the previous session. Japan ( NKY:IND ) fell 0.20% to around 39,800 on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak as optimism over trade developments helped steady market sentiment. The Japanese yen stabilized around 143.7 per dollar on Thursday after facing some pressure in the previous session. The au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised higher to 51.7 in June 2025, up from 51.5 in the preliminary estimate and following a final reading of 51.0 in May. The Bank of Japan should resume rate hikes after a temporary pause to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy, board member Hajime Takata said in a speech Thursday. “My view is that the BoJ is currently only pausing its policy interest rate hike cycle,” he noted, adding the bank should shift away from its ultra-loose policy after a period of “wait and see”. China ( SHCOMP ) rose 0.17% rallied with the Shenzhen Component climbing 0.5% to above 10,460, following reports that the US has lifted certain export restrictions on chip design software to China, and the offshore yuan steadied around 7.16 per dollar on Thursday as investors digested the latest PMI data. A private survey showed China’s services activity expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in June. The Caixin China General Services PMI declined to 50.6 in June 2025, down from May’s 51.1 and below market forecasts of 51.0. In a significant development for U.S.-China trade agreement, the U.S. has lifted some export controls on chip design software sales in China , previously imposed in May, that required licenses for certain tools and chemicals. This policy shift is set to resume trade in critical sectors like rare earths and advanced technologies. Hong Kong ( HSI ) fell 0.74% to 23,963 on Thursday morning, swinging from the prior session’s gains amid weak data from the mainland. India ( SENSEX ) rose 0.46% to 83,715 in early deals on Thursday, halting losses from the previous session amid optimism over trade negotiations following a US-Vietnam trade deal just days ahead of a July 9 deadline. India’s private sector growth hit a 14-month peak in June 2025, with services and manufacturing rising the most in 10 months and 14 months, respectively. Australia ( AS51 ) fell 0.03% to around 8,580 on Thursday after closing at a record high in the previous session. The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.657 on Thursday, ending a three-session winning streak, weighed down by lackluster trade figures. Australia’s May trade surplus narrowed sharply to AUD 2.24 billion , well below expectations of AUD 5.09 billion and a revised AUD 4.86 billion in April, marking the smallest surplus in nearly 5 years, with exports hitting a 3-month low due to weaker US shipments affected by tariffs. The S&P Global Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 51.8 in June, up from 50.6 in May, signaling the fastest pace of expansion since May 2024. In the U.S., on Wednesday, all three major indexes ended higher after President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the U.S. will impose 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam under a new trade deal finalized during last-minute talks. Investor sentiment was further bolstered by renewed trade optimism and soft labor market data, which reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets turned their focus to the upcoming June jobs report. U.S. stock futures held steady on Thursday as investors awaited the closely watched June jobs report: Dow +0.05% ; S&P 500 +0.04% ; Nasdaq +0.04% . Currencies: ( JPY:USD ), ( CNY:USD ), ( AUD:USD ), ( INR:USD ), ( HKD:USD ), ( NZD:USD ). More on Asia: U.S.-China trade agreement leads to lifted chip design software restrictions Australia’s trade surplus narrows to five-year low in May, missing forecasts amid export dip Australia’s manufacturing contraction deepens in May; retail sales miss estimates China’s factory activity returns to expansion at 50.4, new orders surge amid better trade Japan’s manufacturing PMI revised downward to 50.1 in June; Nikkei index drops as Trump threatens new tariffs

Source: Seeking Alpha