HTX Research Unveils the Drivers of Bitcoin’s $100,000 Rally

A new report from HTX Research provides a detailed analysis of the situation in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen a strong recovery since the beginning of May. Analysts note that Bitcoin has returned to above $100,000, while Ethereum and Solana are showing a similar strengthening of positions. This movement is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics, in particular a decline in U.S. inflation and increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve. Lower inflation and increased liquidity are supporting the market According to HTX Research analysis, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, released on May 13, 2025, showed a further cooling of inflation, reinforcing expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this year. The overall CPI annualized rate was 2.3% (from a forecast of 2.4% and a previous reading of 2.6%), reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Core CPI was recorded at 2.8% (in line with expectations, previous value – 3.0%). The report cites the opinion of Goldman Sachs analysts, who note that some companies, preparing for the introduction of tariffs by the Trump administration in early April, replenished inventories in advance, which temporarily delayed passing costs on to consumers. Commodity prices were flat in April, and excluding food and energy, rose only 0.1%, indicating that the impact of the tariffs has been relatively moderate so far. However, retailers are already warning of possible future price increases, and the PCE index, which the Fed is paying more attention to (2.3% in March), is still above the 2% target. A temporary increase in macroeconomic liquidity has also supported the market. According to HTX Research, total Fed assets rose from $6.70 trillion (April 30) to $6.73 trillion in early May, and Fed net liquidity (balance sheet assets + TGA – RRP) increased from $4.89 trillion to $4.94 trillion over the same period, freeing up about $50 billion in net liquidity. The U.S. Treasury’s TGA (Treasury General Account) grew to $583 billion and the RRP (Reverse Repo Program) balance fell to a historic low of $78 billion. This improvement in liquidity is due to the slowdown in the Fed’s quantitative tightening (lowering the cap on government bond redemptions to $50 billion), the return of tax season financing, and the outflow of money market funds from RRP. HTX Research analysts note that if the Treasury conducts a large TGA replenishment after the July–August debt ceiling agreement and the RRP buffer pool comes close to depletion, systemic liquidity could shrink again, putting pressure on risk assets. Institutional investors are building positions, but data signals risks Amid optimistic macroeconomic sentiment, there has been a notable influx of funds into the cryptocurrency market. As highlighted in the HTX Research report, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures remains at a high level, at around 660,000 BTC or 3.4% of circulating supply, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, indicating the continued allocation of institutional funds. Bitcoin’s OI on cryptocurrency trading platforms also increased by 12%, with positions concentrated near the $100,000 mark. The Ethereum and Solana derivatives markets are also showing a strong recovery, with ETH open interest up 15% since the first week of May and SOL rebounding 18% since the end of April. According to blockchain data cited by HTX Research, the proportion of short-term holders of ETH in profit has risen to around 90% and SOL to 88%, approaching thresholds of historical highs (greater than 90% usually warns of a local top forming). This increases the risk of short-term profit taking. Deribit data analyzed in the report shows that the implied volatility (IV) of near-term Bitcoin options declined from 65% to 58% following the release of CPI data, reflecting market expectations that short-term volatility will stabilize. Some institutional players started selling options to realize premiums. The Ethereum options market has a bullish structure for the long term, with December call options at $4,000–$5,000 actively traded, indicating that institutional investors are pre-positioning at low levels in anticipation of the next wave of growth. Overall picture: structural bullish trend with short-term consolidation The HTX Research report highlights that overall, increased macroeconomic liquidity, heightened expectations of rate cuts due to cooling inflation, continued institutional investor positioning, and renewed risk appetite in derivatives markets have collectively contributed to a strong May recovery in key crypto-assets – Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. However, in the short term, the high proportion of short-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum in profit, combined with the concentration of leveraged positions in the derivatives market, could lead to significant volatility if prices break key technical levels, potentially triggering massive profit taking and a cascade of liquidations. The overall market configuration is characterized by a medium-term structural bullish trend with short-term consolidation. SEC plans to introduce exemptions for tokenized securities HTX Research analysts also note important regulatory news. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce publicly disclosed that a special SEC working group on cryptoassets is studying ”an exemption mechanism for the registration of tokenized securities.” According to the draft, this mechanism would allow certain companies to issue, trade, and settle qualified tokenized securities through distributed ledger technology (DLT) without having to go through the traditional securities registration process. To ensure security and market compliance, the exemption regime will include strict conditions: companies must comply with basic rules against fraud and market manipulation, provide users with comprehensive information on platform operation, smart contract structure, conflicts of interest, and potential risks, be subject to SEC staff inspections, and have sufficient operational capacity to operate the blockchain. Participants providing cryptocurrency storage services will be required to develop blockchain security strategies and disclose storage terms. Initially, there will be restrictions on the types of tokenized securities, issuance volumes, and trading liquidity. Expansion of the scope of application will be possible only after stable operation of the pilot project and achievement of regulatory goals. As noted in the HTX Research report, the implementation of this mechanism can provide dual support – political legitimacy and institutional innovation – for utilitarian tokens with strong political overtones, combining practical application and popularity effect. According to HTX Research analysts’ conclusions, the May rally in the cryptocurrency market is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and institutional interest. Despite short-term volatility risks, fundamentals point to the formation of a longer-term bullish trend. Regulatory initiatives in tokenized securities may create new opportunities for the digital asset market.

Source: Coinpaper