ARK’s Price Target For Bitcoin In 2030

Summary We updated our bitcoin price targets for 2030, projecting bear, base, and bull cases of ~$300,000,~$710,000, and ~$1.5 million per bitcoin, respectively. Our supply estimate is based on bitcoin’s deterministic issuance schedule, which will approach ~20.5 million units by 2030. Digital gold contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case. Price targets in this article rely on assumptions made regarding the total addressable markets (TAMs) and penetration rates discussed below. Bitcoin may fail to reach these price targets if any of the TAMs or penetration rates are not met. Risks and limitations exist that may prevent our forecasts from being realized. In ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report, we updated our bitcoin price targets for 2030, projecting bear, base, and bull cases of ~$300,000,~$710,000, and ~$1.5 million per bitcoin, respectively, as shown below. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. This forecast relies on data that have not been verified, and are subject to numerous criteria, assumptions, risks, and limitations that are inherently uncertain, and there will be variations with real life that could cause substantially different results. The forecast includes assumptions on the future use cases for bitcoin and the levels at which those use cases will contribute to bitcoin’s price appreciation, which are subject to change or revisions over time, that are influenced by ARK’s subjective judgments and biases that heighten the risks and limit the uses of the forecast as a decision-making tool. Given the unpredictable nature of markets and other future events, relying on forecasts is inherently risky. While we believe that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, they are provided for illustrative purposes only and no representations are made as to their accuracy. This article unpacks the modeling methodology and assumptions supporting those price targets, including the expected total addressable markets (TAMs) and penetration rates. Price Targets And Assumptions Our price targets are the sum of TAM (Total Addressable Market) contributions at the end of 2030, based on the following formula: Our supply estimate is based on bitcoin’s deterministic issuance schedule, which will approach ~20.5 million units by 2030. Each variable contributes to the price target as follows: Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (primary): Institutional investment, primarily through spot ETFs. Referred to by some as “digital gold,” bitcoin is a nimbler, more transparent store-of-value relative to gold. 1 Emerging market investors seeking a safe haven that can protect them against inflation and devaluation. Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (secondary): Nation-state treasuries, as other countries follow the US with bitcoin strategic reserves. Corporate treasuries, as more companies diversify fiat cash with bitcoin. Bitcoin on-chain financial services, as Bitcoin substitutes for legacy finance. Excluding digital gold, which our model penalizes because it is the most direct, zero-sum competitor to bitcoin, we assume conservatively that the TAM of the contributors listed above (specifically 1, 3, 4, and 5) grows at a compound annual growth rate ((CAGR)) of 3% over the next six years. For the sixth contributor—bitcoin’s on-chain financial services—we assume a 6-year CAGR ranging from 20% to 60%, relative to the value accrued as of year-end 2024, as follows: Finally, we delineate the TAM and penetration rate contributions to the bear, base, and bull price targets, respectively, as follows: Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. As shown in the chart above, digital gold contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case. In the tables below, we detail our forecasted relative contributions of the six sources of capital accrual to the bear, base, and bull cases, respectively. 1. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Institutional Investment Institutional Investment Projected Total Addressable Market (TAM) Global Market Portfolio Ex Gold (2030) ~$200 trillion Assumed Penetration Rate Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 1% 2.5% 6.5% Contribution To Price Target Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 32.7% 34.3% 43.4% Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. According to State Street, The Global Market Portfolio 2 is defined as: All investable capital assets corresponding to its market value divided by the sum of the market values of all assets. As the sum of all holdings that result from the collective decisions of investors and issuers, as well as suppliers and demanders of capital, the Global Market Portfolio can be seen as a de facto proxy for the investable opportunity set available to all investors globally. As of 2024, the global portfolio’s TAM, excluding gold’s 3.6% share, is ~$169 trillion. Applying an assumed 3% CAGR results in a value of ~$200 trillion by 2030. We then assume 1% and 2.5% penetration rates for the bear and base cases, respectively, both of which are lower than gold’s 3.6% share today. As a result, the bear and base cases represent conservative views on bitcoin’s adoption. In the more aggressive bull case, we assume that bitcoin penetration hits 6.5%, nearly double gold’s current share. 2. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Digital Gold Digital Gold Total Addressable Market (TAM) Gold Market Cap (2024) ~$18 trillion Assumed Penetration Rate Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 20% 40% 60% Contribution To Price Target Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 57.8% 48.6% 35.5% Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. The contribution of digital gold assumes a TAM relative to gold’s current market capitalization. Given our aggressive penetration rate, we penalize gold’s expected TAM in 2030 by assuming no growth. In our view, bitcoin as digital gold is an appealing narrative and will drive penetration. 3. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Emerging Market Safe Haven Emerging Market Safe Haven Projected Total Addressable Market (TAM) M2 3 Monetary Base of Emerging Markets (2030) ~$68 trillion Assumed Penetration Rate Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 0.5% 2.5% 6% Contribution To Price Target Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 5.5% 11.5% 13.5% Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. The Emerging Market Safe Haven TAM is based on the monetary base of all developing nations—also known as “non-advanced” economies according to the IMF/CIA definition. 4 In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual. In addition to its store-of-value characteristics, bitcoin’s low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative that may provide capital appreciation over time—as opposed to defensive allocations like the US dollar—to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies. 4. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Nation-State Treasuries Nation-State Treasuries Projected Total Addressable Market (TAM) Global Treasury Reserves Ex Gold (2030) ~$15 trillion Assumed Penetration Rate Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 0.5% 2.5% 7% Contribution To Price Target Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 1.2% 2.6% 3.5% Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. While El Salvador and Bhutan currently lead the world in nation-state bitcoin adoption, advocates for bitcoin strategic reserves are growing—not least President Trump, who, on March 6, issued an executive order 5 to establish a reserve in the United States. Although our bear and base case assumptions are conservative, we believe that the US could bolster the justification for the 7% penetration rate assumed in our bull case. 5. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Corporate Treasuries Corporate Treasuries Projected Total Addressable Market (TAM) Global Corporate Cash and Cash Equivalents (2030) ~$7 trillion Assumed Penetration Rate Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 1% 2.5% 10% Participation In Price Target Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 1.1% 1.2% 2.3% Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Inspired by the success of MicroStrategy’s bitcoin purchases since 2020, other companies are integrating bitcoin into their corporate strategies. At year-end 2024, 74 public companies held ~$55 billion in bitcoin on their balance sheets. If those corporate strategies prove successful over the next six years, the conservative penetration assumptions in our bear and base cases—1% and 2.5%, respectively—could move toward our bull case assumption of 10%. 6. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Bitcoin On-Chain Financial Services Bitcoin On-Chain Financial Services Total Addressable Market (TAM) Layer 2s, Lightning Network, Sidechains, Restaking, WBTC (2024) ~$35 billion Assumed CAGR Over 6 Years Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 20% 40% 60% Contribution To Price Target Bear Case Base Case Bull Case 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. Bitcoin’s native financial services are an emerging contributor to capital accrual. Among prominent examples, layer 2s 6 like the Lightning Network are dedicated to scaling bitcoin’s transaction capacity, while Wrapped BTC (WBTC) on the Ethereum network enables bitcoin to participate in decentralized finance. Such on-chain financial services are becoming increasingly important features of the bitcoin ecosystem. As a result, we believe a baseline CAGR of 40% is a realistic expectation between now and 2030. ARK’s Assumptions Applied to Active Bitcoin Supply Although not included in ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report, other experimental modeling methods estimate bitcoin’s price in 2030. One technique is to leverage bitcoin’s on-chain transparency to estimate bitcoin’s liquid supply—which we call “active” supply—by discounting lost or long-held coins. Based on this methodology, active supply can be calculated by multiplying bitcoin’s expected supply in 2030 by the “liveliness” metric that measures the amount of bitcoin that has moved over time, from 0% to 100%—in other words, the true “float” of the asset, as shown below. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from Glassnode as of December 31, 2024. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. As the chart depicts, bitcoin’s network liveliness has remained near ~60% since early 2018. In our view, that magnitude of liveliness suggests that ~40% of supply is “vaulted”—a concept we explore in-depth in the ARK whitepaper Cointime Economics: A New Framework for Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis . We then apply our same bear- and base-case TAMs and penetration rates to a projected active supply of 60% by 2030—assuming stable liveliness over time—as follows: On that basis, we arrive at the following price targets, which are roughly 40% higher than our base model, which does not account for bitcoin active supply and network liveliness: Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. This forecast relies on data that have not been verified, and are subject to numerous criteria, assumptions, risks, and limitations that are inherently uncertain, and there will be variations with real life that could cause substantially different results. The forecast includes assumptions on the future use cases for bitcoin and the levels at which those use cases will contribute to bitcoin’s price appreciation, which are subject to change or revisions over time, that are influenced by ARK’s subjective judgments and biases that heighten the risks and limit the uses of the forecast as a decision-making tool. Given the unpredictable nature of markets and other future events, relying on forecasts is inherently risky. While we believe that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, they are provided for illustrative purposes only and no representations are made as to their accuracy. Importantly, the estimates constructed with this more experimental methodology are more aggressive than those in our bear, base, and bull cases. With a more conservative bias, our official price targets focus only on total bitcoin supply. That said, we also believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today. Important Information The forecasts and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK Invest (“ARK”) and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. Forecasts regarding broad markets and bitcoin are not, and are not intended to be, representative of any ARK-managed investment product or the characteristics of any ARK portfolio. FORECASTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, they are provided for illustrative purposes only and no representations are made as to their accuracy. The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasts, as they are inherently subjective and reflect ARK’s inherent bias toward positive expected results. Any positive results should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of bitcoin, with higher forecasts generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasts, and they might not be predictive. Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results. The forecast has not been achieved by bitcoin, and like all modeled, projected, or hypothetical information, it is important to note that there are multiple versions of a model, and ARK has a conflict of interest in that we have an incentive to show you the best performing results. These forecasts rely on models, which have several inherent limitations, including: 1) reliance on a variety of data obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, but might be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete and ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party, 2) potential inclusion of inherent model creation biases, data discrepancies and/or calculation errors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, and 3) NO reflection of the impact that material economic and market factors might have had and do not involve market risk. The forecasts rely on assumptions, forecasts, estimates, modeling, algorithms and other data input by ARK, some of which relies on third-parties, that could be or prove over time to be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete. The forecasts are based on a variety of criteria and assumptions, which might vary substantially, and involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis that reflect our own expectations and biases, which might prove invalid or change without notice. It is possible that other foreseeable events that were not taken into account could occur. The forecasts contained herein represent the application of the simulation models as currently in effect on the date first written above, and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the period will not necessarily occur. The results will not be updated as the models change, or any information upon which they rely changes. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to bitcoin specifically that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of forecasts, all of which can adversely affect actual results. For these reasons, forecasted results will differ, and could differ significantly from actual results. FORECASTS ARE PRESENTED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY. Bitcoin is subject to rapid price swings, including as a result of actions and statements by influencers and the media, changes in the supply of and demand for bitcoin, and other factors. There is no assurance that bitcoin will maintain or increase its value over the long term. Bitcoin is largely unregulated and bitcoin investments may be more susceptible to fraud and manipulation than more regulated investments. Bitcoin is subject to unique and substantial risks, including significant price volatility and lack of liquidity, and theft. 1 The term “digital gold” is only meant to compare bitcoin to gold as a store-of-value. Investing in bitcoin is not an investment in gold in any form. 2 State Street Global Advisors. 2024. “Global Market Portfolio 2024.” 3 “M2” is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers’ checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. 4 International monetary Fund. 2025. “WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS. World Economic Outlook Database.” See also World Fact Book. 2020. “Advanced Economies.” 5 The White House. President Donald J. Trump. 2025. “ESTABLISHMENT OF THE STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE AND UNITED STATES DIGITAL ASSET STOCKPILE.” 6 “Layer 2s” are networks build on top of Layer 1 (L1) networks, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Disclosure: ARK’s statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. For a list of all purchases and sales made by ARK for client accounts during the past year that could be considered by the SEC as recommendations, click here . It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. For full disclosures, click here .

Source: Seeking Alpha