Strong Momentum On Bitcoin? Then I Choose FBTC

Summary FBTC is among the most liquid and tightest bid/ask spread spot ETFs on BTC, but not the cheapest. This makes it suitable for faster trading contexts and sets it apart from solutions like BTC or HODL. I remain bullish because Bitcoin is showing increasing alignment with risk-on assets (like the Nasdaq), and less with safe haven assets like gold. Trump’s victories in the trade arena could create fertile ground for risk-on assets, and potentially for Bitcoin as well. An altseason also seems to be emerging, driven by the institutionalization of crypto, which could bring increased volatility. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF ( FBTC ) is not the most cost-effective, but it is definitely the most talked about/appreciated. And this is something I’ve especially noticed among traders and short-term operators. There’s a tendency to prefer FBTC over possibly cheaper solutions. In fact, among the spot Bitcoin funds, it has one of the highest AUMs, and in my peer table, it ranks second only to IBIT. FBTC – IBIT: Profile (Seeking Alpha) It caught my attention, and from the ETF analysis, an interesting and indeed distinctive factor emerged: a reduced bid-ask spread and a minimal premium discount (1m rolling avg). But the question naturally arises: if the horizon shifts to the very short/short/medium term, what is the right approach to FBTC? Personally, I still tend to have a bullish view, as a consequence of my strictly momentum-oriented approach when working in the short term (those who follow me know that in the long term I tend to favor the quality aspect instead). The reason? The triumph of risk-on, thanks to the achievements reached by President Donald Trump in the trade arena. But also the positive evolution of the institutional narrative, with the GENIUS Act , which seems to align Bitcoin’s price action more and more with the Nasdaq-100, rather than with gold and the concept of a safe haven asset. But before that … What is FBTC? FBTC is the Spot ETF proposed by Fidelity Investments on Bitcoin, 100% backed by physical bitcoin (no derivatives, no leverage), with Fidelity Digital Asset Services (FDAS) as the custodian and custody mainly in cold storage with dynamic allocation (target >98%). And let’s be honest, it’s not the first, nor the last solution launched by investment firms to take part in the “Bitcoin rush.” What we can ask ourselves is: is it the best? Well, it has an expense ratio of 0.25%; so it’s definitely not the cheapest. Fees are paid in bitcoin: the number of BTC per share decreases over time. However, it has a 30-day average bid/ask spread of +0.01% and Premium/Discount (1m rolling avg): +0.01%. FBTC – Expense Grade (Seeking Alpha) Not surprisingly, I notice it’s the preferred instrument among my colleagues for spot operations, or even daily or swing trading. This is because it’s fairly representative of BTC’s price in the short term, considering that the calculation method is the Volume-Weighted Median Price (VWMP) every 15 seconds , over rolling 60-minute windows. Peer: It has an AUM (Assets Under Management) of $23.99 billion, so we definitely can’t say it’s not appreciated in the market: not by chance, only 30% of the ownership distribution is institutional; almost 70% is public retail, probably attracted by the Fidelity brand and its interoperability. Even though there are alternatives in the market, some would call them “better”: first of all, HODL and BTC have lower costs. And IBIT has higher AUM and volumes. FBTC – IBIT – BTC – HODL: Profile (Seeking Alpha) The result? Practically, short-term performance is very similar. The difference in expense ratio could generate a divergence in the long run, which leads me to prefer BTC or HODL for long-term portfolio solutions. But considering liquidity parameters, like the bid/ask spread and the relationship with NAV, FBTC remains a hot pick in my opinion (as, to some extent, does IBIT). And I must admit that among the prop trading community, it’s very much appreciated in this sense. FBTC – IBIT – HODL – BTC : Liquidity and expense grade (Seeking Alpha) Outlook for FBTC When it comes to the short term, I like to think like a CTA: with trend-following strategies. And in the short term, I embrace momentum as a winning strategy. And today, BTC-USD has a strongly positive momentum. The same quant rating is STRONG BUY, and here we know that trading such tickers statistically generates alpha. FBTC – Quant rating (Seeking Alpha) What drives FBTC’s positive momentum? Simply, markets are in risk-on mode . The tariff agreements Trump is making with global partners are theoretically a positive element for risk-on assets, and we can see this from the rising price of the Nasdaq index. Since Bitcoin is now widely considered by the market as a risk-on asset, BTC demand is rising too. And I don’t see it as something strange or senseless: personally, I also distance myself from the Bitcoin = Safe haven asset parallel. On the contrary, I think the institutionalization process, with the GENIUS Act (among other factors), will strengthen Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq-100 price action and move it further away from that of gold futures. Data by YCharts Risk There are signs of a potential upcoming altseason : ETFs on ETH are still recording record inflows, $7.79B in 2025 alone , and the price of the “mother of DeFi” ( ETH ) is outperforming BTC in YoY price return. Data by YCharts In fact, some would already call this an altseason . It will be interesting to see how capital is distributed on-chain, since during these phases there tends to be an inflow into DEXs. Is this a negative for BTC? It depends, because it often anticipates peak phases of the cycle (like the meme coin boom on BNB in 2022), but it’s not necessarily a bearish signal, nor does it conflict with the Bitcoin narrative, it rather runs parallel to it. After all, ETH is itself a strong beneficiary of the institutionalization process. Data by YCharts Of course, when dominance shifts from BTC to ETH or derivatives, it’s as if fuel is being taken away from BTC, but this doesn’t necessarily mean a bearish market. Conclusion In conclusion, I believe FBTC is a very solid ETF for very short/short/medium-term operations. It’s also suitable for long-term strategies, but (as of today) less competitive than other options like BTC or HODL. I still embrace a bullish view, justified by my momentum-driven approach for trades up to the medium term (a horizon suitable for FBTC). The narrative of a new risk-on phase is a positive element for BTC. It’s a view that distances itself from the current trend of thinking that sees BTC as “digital gold.” An altseason seems to be emerging between the lines, stimulated by the ongoing institutionalization process. Not necessarily a negative element, though potentially destabilizing to the current balance.

Source: Seeking Alpha