Bitcoin: Lightning Strikes Twice (Technical Analysis) (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, touching $119K as of July 11th, 2025. Congrats, Bitcoin! This milestone highlights Bitcoin’s continued strength alongside the broader stock market rally. However, stocks were flat while BTC rallied 8% this week. I break down the 1 year and 1 month charts for BTC, including trends, support and resistance levels, and momentum and strength indicators. There are bearish signals in one chart and bullish signals in the other, confirming a pattern I am seeing form across high-beta and risk-on assets. I consider it very bullish. Consider not only if and at what price one should enter the trade, but also how — we have many tools available to use now in how to hold BTC. I discuss several options (including options). Introduction We are once again at a new historic moment for Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ). Alongside the stock market, BTC is reaching new highs, breaking $119,000 on July 11th, 2025, even if for just a moment. This marks Bitcoin’s new all-time high, and rounds out a 25% gain YTD for BTC, and an even larger change from the bottom Bitcoin found in April. Data by YCharts This comes after a killer near 8% week, and a rally in Bitcoin that came on the heels of the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill from the week prior. Interestingly enough, this breakout from Bitcoin didn’t follow US markets, which were flat over the same time. Actually, Bitcoin has been decoupling a lot lately, though it was still very correlated in the crash back in April. It has its moments. Data by YCharts The decoupling of Bitcoin from markets is a great sign, as it frees up Bitcoin to keep moving in its own direction in the coming weeks. Even if markets stay flat, or even fall, could Bitcoin keep this momentum up? Let’s see what the charts say. Bitcoin Technical Analysis First, it should be of note that I’ve been seeing the same pattern in many charts lately , due to the correlation between high-beta assets. While Bitcoin can decouple from time to time, it overall has kept up with beta overall this past year. So I won’t be talking about the inverse head and shoulders pattern I see, but you can read about that in the article linked above. I see it more in the Nasdaq 100 chart than I do here, anyway. Bitcoin didn’t get the same volume boost at the breakout, but it did get the breakout. That’s what brought us here, to our new all-time high. BTC One-Year Chart Here’s the one-year chart I’m looking at, legend at the top of the image: Barchart There are a few things that stand out to me here: Trend since April low has been clearly upwards. Confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. Here is April-July in daily candles. Barchart We saw our first breakout in November, following the election hype. 200 EMA (maroon line) mostly held during March and April lows, indicating strong structural support around that level. Mid-June showed us the breakout cleanly above the psychological $100K barrier. Momentum gauges like RSI, MACD, and PPO are all bullish currently, showing some of the strongest momentum since Q4 2024. Barchart Here are the current support levels we can chart out: Level Type Note $119,000 Resistance Psychological, ATH $116,000 Support Last resistance $109,700 Support 20 EMA $105,500 Support 50 EMA $100,300 Strong Support 100 EMA $92,200 Strong Support 200 EMA This is a classic breakout happening, which is bullish, especially when confirmed with strong momentum and not-overbought conditions on the RSI (yet), MACD, and PPO. That being said, we could still see some short-term pullbacks, but I expected these levels to hold barring a large market correction that could bring down Bitcoin in sympathy. Otherwise, the chart says we may have $116,000, the last technical resistance that we broke out of to hit these new highs, as a new support level for midday trading noise. Traders looking to enter Bitcoin may consider looking around these various support levels, especially if we drop to the 100 EMA, around the $100K mark. That would be a psychological battle for price that could determine bullish or bearish sentiment moving forward. However, I don’t expect us to test those levels soon, and certainly not without a negative catalyst. BTC One-Month Chart Looking back just at the past month shows us a different story, one that is far more exhausted than the one-year looks. This is where that “short term pullback” could come from. Barchart This is a consolidation pattern, which is common following a breakout, especially with a movement as forceful and strong as this last one was. See how fast the MACD and PPO lines jumped on July 10th-11th. That’s one of the ways we can see the strength of a rally, although these indicators can tend to lag at times. Most of the movement that caused them to jump started on July 9th. Zoom in on the most recent ticks; remember that these are hour candles on a one-month chart. Note how we fell firmly below the 20 EMA, which is now acting as a resistance level. Next support is at the 50 EMA, which is down at $116,300. Barchart We could easily fall to $112,000 before resuming the upward trend, but it will depend on volume. Current volume hasn’t changed much since the breakout, and if anything is a bit lower since then. Momentum indicators are bearish, and the RSI is reflecting close-to oversold conditions, but still has room to fall if consolidation continues. Barchart The positives about this chart is that it is showing us a very small bull flag around the consolidation, and this may be a textbook case of “refueling,” or buyer demand falling off after a breakout. That is usually a bullish signal to buy now, though I am hesitant to ever recommend buying anything at all-time highs. Bitcoin Investment Strategy For those holding BTC outright or through ETFs like IBIT, I would suggest continuing to hold. This may be a great opportunity, but I don’t know if I add here. Personally, I am not adding to my position in Bitcoin because I am happy with my current allocation. This take doesn’t mean I’m not bullish, and so I am still giving Bitcoin a buy rating here, but I just happened to have already bought (long) before I wrote this piece. I am right-sized currently, and suggest others consider their risk tolerance carefully, as Bitcoin is incredibly volatile. For those looking to buy in now, entry point matters. I would look for a pullback to the $110k-105k region, testing the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA. This may come on the back of the short-term weakness I see in the one-month chart, and I expect us to see increased intraday volatility as we test new highs. Those trading days will likely provide some solid entry points. For options traders, this breakout is likely to come with volatility, and we’re already seeing IV push up. Long calls are risky due to currently high IV, as a prolonged pullback from here could deflate IV and crush options pricing. Short puts far OTM, with strikes below 100 EMA (~$100k or equivalent in ETF pricing) may be attractive, but cap upside participation if the breakout is sustained as I expect. For example, here is the IBIT Dec 31st 65C (a way cheaper way to buy options on Bitcoin). Notice the elevated implied volatility (purple line) relative to the inflated price, which we should expect either way since the underlying asset has run up to all-time highs. If IV falls back to where it was even just a few days ago, the call could rapidly lose value even if the asset stays at its current level. This phenomenon would be advantageous for options sellers, which is why I would recommend OTM short puts instead of long calls. OptionStrat How I Own BTC Personally, I don’t own any actual Bitcoins anymore, as I got rid of most of the collection I had over the 2021 cycle when I felt like the bubble behavior had gotten too bad (NFTs, etc.), and the rest has become dust sitting across various wallets. It’s no longer worth it to collect that, at least for now. I don’t include that meaningfully in my Bitcoin allocation. Since the rise of access to derivatives and commodity-based ETFs over the last few years has changed the way people access BTC, I no longer feel the need to store them physically or with a custodian like Coinbase ( COIN ). I own them through my brokerage account now. I own Bitcoin two ways: The iShares IBIT ETF The Simplify MAXI ETF Income investors should also check out Roundhill’s YBTC and NEOS’ BTCI ; they’re both great covered call funds covering BTC. Conclusion Ultimately, I see the possibility for Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) to continue to impress, even after hitting a new all-time high on Friday. Risk-on assets are in vogue, and high beta instruments like Bitcoin are riding a generally positive wave. However, Bitcoin decoupled from stocks, which were flat last week, to run up almost 8% and set a new record. Technical analysis shows us a positive setup for Bitcoin, with the one-year chart looking far more bullish than the one-month chart. This falls in line with the general trend and pattern I am seeing, where BTC is consolidating after its breakout this past week. Consolidations may test new technical support levels, offering attractive entry points for bullish investors. I see the potential for more pain ahead, especially if stocks and other high-beta assets consolidate in the coming days, down to $110,000. However, there are several smaller barriers before then, and trading may be choppy through the summer. Long-term bullishness and short-term bearishness historically benefits buyers. Look out for opportunities, and be patient if necessary. Remember that position sizing is often more important than security selection. Thanks for reading.

Source: Seeking Alpha