Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Dip as Mining Stocks Climb

Bitcoin and crypto mining stocks advanced sharply this week, buoyed by favorable macroeconomic signals and renewed investor confidence in a soft landing for the US economy. While Bitcoin briefly crossed $110,000 and mining equities surged between 13% and 28%, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes cautioned that a temporary pullback could follow after President Trump signs his “Big Beautiful Bill” into law. Hayes pointed to the US Treasury’s likely debt issuance and its impact on liquidity as a reason for short-term concern, even as broader market conditions continue to favor digital assets. Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin Rally May Be Interrupted as Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Nears Signature Bitcoin’s price climbed past $110,000 early Thursday, putting the flagship cryptocurrency within striking distance of its all-time high. But according to crypto entrepreneur and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, a temporary pullback is likely—even as bullish momentum continues. In a new blog post published Wednesday, titled ”Quid Pro Stablecoin,” Hayes warned that a major shift in US fiscal policy could dampen market enthusiasm in the short term. At the center of his analysis is President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping piece of legislation that proposes tax cuts and an expanded debt ceiling. The bill passed the House of Representatives Thursday and previously cleared the Senate, with Trump expected to sign it into law on Friday, which coincides with the July 4th Independence Day holiday. “Proceed with caution,” Hayes advised in his blog. “The bull market might be interrupted for a short period of time.” Treasury Liquidity Drain Could Trigger Bitcoin Dip Hayes’ primary concern centers on the US Treasury’s next steps after the bill is signed. The former BitMEX CEO believes that the Treasury will likely refill its General Account, a move that typically involves issuing a large amount of debt—pulling liquidity out of risk-on markets like crypto. In Hayes’ view, this process could cause a short-term correction in Bitcoin’s price, potentially pushing it back down to $90,000 before resuming its upward trajectory. Still, Hayes remains bullish on the longer-term picture for Bitcoin , maintaining that broader macroeconomic conditions—such as high national debt, inflationary pressures, and central bank money printing—create a supportive backdrop for BTC’s rise. Hayes’ warning comes amid a broader debate on how Trump’s second-term economic agenda will impact markets. The “Big Beautiful Bill” includes tax cuts that could increase consumer spending and corporate profits but will also require significant new borrowing—sparking concerns about long-term inflation and fiscal sustainability. Hayes also addressed the increasing involvement of the US government in the stablecoin sector. Stablecoins—digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar—are often touted as solutions for faster payments and decentralized finance. But Hayes believes the government’s interest lies elsewhere. He argued that the real motivation is reducing the national deficit. His comments refer to the recently passed GENIUS Act, which provides a regulatory framework for issuing and trading stablecoins in the US. Hayes criticized the act for favoring big banks over private crypto companies, suggesting that financial institutions could issue government-backed stablecoins to buy US Treasury bills—essentially digitizing the debt market and locking in institutional demand. Hayes Still Sees Bitcoin at $1 Million by 2028 Despite his near-term concerns, Hayes remains one of the crypto market’s most vocal bulls. In May, he said Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin by 2028, predicting that investors would shift capital from US Treasuries into hard assets like Bitcoin amid growing distrust of fiat-based financial systems. That view aligns with other long-term Bitcoin maximalists who argue that sovereign debt levels and monetary easing policies will inevitably erode trust in traditional currencies and drive demand for decentralized alternatives. As the US prepares for another round of expansive fiscal policy under President Trump, the coming weeks could prove pivotal for the cryptocurrency market. For now, Hayes says to expect some turbulence. Crypto Mining Stocks Surge as Macroeconomic Optimism Fuels Soft-Landing Hopes Meanwhile, crypto mining stocks recorded impressive gains this week, bolstered by renewed optimism that the US Federal Reserve could achieve a “soft landing” for the economy without triggering a major recession. Despite a mild pullback on Thursday, shares of major public miners like Riot Platforms (RIOT), Hive Digital (HIVE), Hut 8 (HUT8), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Bitfarms (BITF) soared between 13% and 28% over the past four trading sessions. The performance of crypto mining stocks from June 30 to July 3, 2025 (Source: Google Finance) The rally in digital asset equities comes as broader US markets also surged to new highs in a holiday-shortened week. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ended Thursday’s session at record levels, propelled by stronger-than-expected labor market data and easing inflationary concerns. Markets closed early on Thursday in observance of the July 4th Independence Day holiday weekend, but that didn’t stop crypto-related equities from building on earlier momentum. Bitcoin Miners Outperform Amid Strong Jobs Data The immediate catalyst for the Thursday rally was the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the economy added 147,000 jobs in June—beating analysts’ expectations. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1% from 4.3%, further signaling labor market resilience. Though workforce participation fell to its lowest point since 2022—partly due to tightening immigration policies—investors interpreted the report as evidence that the US economy remains fundamentally strong, and that the Fed may still have room to ease interest rates later this year. The performance of publicly traded Bitcoin miners reflected that optimism. Hive Digital and Hut 8 both logged gains over 20% for the week, while Riot and MARA climbed over 15%. Bitfarms, which has struggled in past quarters, led the pack with an almost 28% weekly gain. Crypto-focused ETF products also saw a lift. VanEck’s Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP)—which tracks 24 publicly listed digital asset firms including Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR)—rose 3.2% on Thursday alone and is now up more than 20% year-to-date, according to Yahoo Finance. The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) is up over 20% year-to-date (Source: Yahoo Finance ) Bitcoin’s Price Holds Steady Near $110K Bitcoin itself held steady through the trading week, reaching a high of $110,541 on Friday before easing back during midday trading. The steady performance of Bitcoin provided additional tailwinds to mining firms, which often move in tandem with BTC price action due to their operational leverage. As Bitcoin prices approach their all-time highs, mining revenues and profitability expectations also rise, drawing increased investor interest into the sector. According to Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, the macroeconomic backdrop is increasingly favorable for the digital asset sector—even if the Federal Reserve holds off on immediate rate cuts. Mena cited improving risk sentiment, falling inflation expectations, and the growing likelihood of regulatory clarity through key legislation—such as the market structure bill and the GENIUS Act—as pivotal factors. These developments could help legitimize crypto as an investable asset class while removing barriers for institutional adoption. Regulation, ETFs, and Long-Term Tailwinds Recent legislative developments, including the passage of the GENIUS Act—which sets a legal framework for stablecoin issuance and trading—are also being viewed positively by investors. Additionally, the anticipated expansion of crypto ETFs and tokenized asset platforms is generating renewed excitement in traditional financial circles. The growing linkage between macroeconomic policy, digital asset markets, and equity performance is becoming more apparent, especially as Bitcoin matures and institutional exposure increases. The strong weekly gains in mining stocks highlight how sensitive the sector is to shifting economic winds—and why many view it as a barometer for broader crypto market health.

Source: Coinpaper