Bitcoin rangebound as Iran-Israel tensions persist, AERO leads altcoins with 10% rally

Bitcoin traded in a narrow range between $103,630 and $105,532 on Tuesday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Risk appetite faded across the board, dragging the total crypto market cap down by nearly 2% to $3.35 trillion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell 5 points to 48, sliding toward the lower end of the neutral zone. The downturn was more pronounced in the altcoin market, with most major tokens trading lower during late Asian hours on Wednesday. Why is Bitcoin down today? Bitcoin’s pullback reflects growing investor unease as geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties intensify. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has been a key driver of market sentiment in recent sessions. Traders have reacted sharply to signs of escalation, with fears of direct military involvement by the United States weighing heavily on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Sentiment took another hit after former President Donald Trump, speaking on the White House lawn, confirmed Iran had reached out to the U.S. for dialogue but warned it might be “very late” for a peaceful resolution. Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $105,000 following those comments, but the broader market remained on edge due to the lack of concrete diplomatic progress. Meanwhile, macroeconomic concerns continue to dampen enthusiasm. Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later on June 18, with expectations of a hawkish hold. According to QCP Capital, the Fed is likely to acknowledge renewed inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical instability, trade tariffs, and surging oil prices. A reduction in the Fed’s projected number of rate cuts for 2025 could further pressure Bitcoin and other digital assets, as markets recalibrate expectations around liquidity. While recent U.S. unemployment data was in line with forecasts, offering brief relief, it did little to offset broader concerns about the inflation outlook. Adding to the caution, Trump renewed his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and called for immediate rate cuts, despite prevailing market expectations that such policy easing will not materialise before Q3. Traders are increasingly wary of heightened volatility around central bank messaging, especially as crypto markets remain highly sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment. Will Bitcoin crash again? Volatility is expected as markets navigate a highly uncertain landscape. While Bitcoin has shown resilience near the $103,000 support zone, further downside remains possible if the conflict in the Middle East escalates or if the Federal Reserve strikes a more hawkish tone than anticipated. Looking at Bitcoin’s liquidity heatmap, key bid liquidity clusters remain concentrated just above $103,000, suggesting that buyers are actively defending this level. Binance BTC/USDT 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass. The visible concentration of liquidation leverage and bid depth near this range signals strong short-term support, though the presence of stacked sell-side liquidity around $106,000 continues to cap upward momentum. The market’s current positioning also reflects a build-up in short interest, with perpetual contracts skewed heavily toward defensive short setups. This raises the potential for a short squeeze if sentiment shifts suddenly on positive geopolitical headlines or dovish Fed commentary. However, until there is greater clarity, Bitcoin remains pinned within a tight range, with traders closely watching for liquidation triggers or sudden breaks through key liquidity zones. The dense clustering of orders around $104,000–$105,000 also suggests an ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears as uncertainty dominates market direction. Bullish narrative, though scarce today, hasn’t completely disappeared. According to Merljin the Trader, some technicals remain firmly intact, with the weekly MACD flipping green and price structure mirroring previous consolidation patterns that preceded strong rallies. BTC/USD 1-week price chart. Source: Merljin the Trader Meanwhile, fellow analyst Cas Abbé pointed to sustained strength in On-Balance Volume (OBV), highlighting that despite price consolidation, buying pressure continues to build. Abbé believes a continued rise in OBV could eventually trigger a breakout from Bitcoin’s current range. See below. Cas Abbé @cas_abbe · Follow Bitcoin OBV is still in an uptrend. $BTC price is consolidating, but On-Balance Volume (OBV) is still making higher highs.For those who don’t know, rising OBV indicates buying pressure.If OBV continues to go up, BTC will eventually break out of its consolidation range.I’m 3:16 PM · Jun 18, 2025 295 Reply Copy link Read 207 replies Speculation around the onset of an extended consolidation that could stretch through the summer is also gaining traction among market participants. Analyst Shibo and Inmortal both flagged the current range as typical summer behaviour, with past cycles showing similar pauses before strong Q4 rallies. BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Inmortal TraderPA, however, believes Bitcoin is currently in a Wyckoff reaccumulation phase. According to this framework, price action may remain choppy in the near term, but another all-time high remains likely before the end of the year. TraderPA @Trader1PA · Follow $BTC is trading in a Wyckoff reaccumulation phase.Another ATH is likely to come this year. 2:08 PM · Jun 18, 2025 124 Reply Copy link Read 19 replies Downside risks for Bitcoin remain low, according to Bitfinex analysts, who said in a Tuesday note that if Bitcoin can hold above the $102,000–$103,000 region, it would confirm that the market is effectively absorbing selling pressure. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $104,892, down 0.5% in the past 23 hours. Altcoin market overview Over the past 24 hours, the total altcoin market cap rose 3.2% to over $1.28 trillion. This came as the Altcoin Season Index reading dropped to 21, indicating Bitcoin’s performance continues to perform better than most of the top 99 altcoins. Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, was trading sideways at around the $2,500 level while its market cap stood at $303 billion when writing. Other large-cap altcoins such as XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), and Cardano (ADA) logged losses ranging between 1-3%. Aerodrome Finance (AERO) stood as the only altcoin among the top 100 leading crypto assets by market cap to hold onto double-digit gains of 15.99% while Sei (SEI) and Cronos (CRO) managed to hold onto little gains. See below: Source: CoinMarketCap Aero rallied after Coinbase integrated Base‑chain DEX functionality, including Aerodrome, into its main app, giving AERO exposure to over 10.8 million monthly users. The leading DEX protocol on Base is benefiting from the increased visibility, attracting new users, deepening liquidity, and driving higher trading activity on the platform. Sei posted slight gains as anticipation builds around Sei Giga, a forthcoming upgrade aimed at improving execution, consensus, and storage efficiency. While price action remained muted, network activity has picked up, with gradual growth in wallet usage and dApp interactions, particularly in the gaming segment. Cronos made a muted move upward as MoonlanderTrade, a decentralized trading platform, activated its tokenized asset market on the Cronos network. The post Bitcoin rangebound as Iran-Israel tensions persist, AERO leads altcoins with 10% rally appeared first on Invezz

Source: Invezz