Stablecoins Could Become One Of The U.S. Government’s Most Resilient Financial Allies

Summary Since January, the supply of stablecoins has surged more than 20% to $247 billion, surpassing 1% of the US M2 money supply. During the last few years, despite the Biden Administration’s aversion to digital assets, the stablecoin complex has continued its meteoric rise. Clearly, Tether, Circle, and the broader stablecoin industry could create one of the largest sources of demand for US Treasuries in the coming years, potentially replacing China and Japan as the top holders by 2030. By Lorenzo Valente Introduction In ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report, we offered investors an in-depth view of the digital asset space, including stablecoins. Since January, the supply of stablecoins has surged more than 20% to $247 billion, surpassing 1% of the US M2 1 money supply. 2 Tether ( USDT-USD ) and Circle ( USDC-USD ) continue to dominate the market at $150 billion and $61 billion, respectively, with a combined market share of more than 85%. 3 In this article, I argue that stablecoins could become one of the US government’s most important strategic assets during the next 5–10 years. Why? Percentage of foreign holdings of US debt has declined sharply over the past 15 years, 4 a trend likely to continue given evolving geopolitical stresses and strains, including the trade tariffs enacted by the Trump Administration. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains unlikely to step up as a major buyer, given its ongoing commitment to quantitative tightening. 5 At the same time, we believe the stablecoin market is poised for exponential growth, with supply projected to increase 5–10x over the next five years. 6 That expansion could drive demand for US debt to levels once supported by sovereign nations. Additionally, stablecoins are reaching geographies and populations that traditional banking systems have failed to serve, counterbalancing the de-dollarization movement currently underway. We lay out our stablecoin thesis and analysis in six sections: Section 1 demonstrates the sustained decline in US Treasury holdings by countries that historically have financed US debt. Section 2 argues that macroeconomic dynamics, including geopolitical shifts, are making investment in US Treasuries less attractive to those countries. Section 3 describes how seemingly stubborn inflation is reducing the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will buy back significant sums of US Treasuries anytime soon. Section 4 demonstrates that stablecoins are filling the vacuum left by historically strong holders of US Treasuries. How do they fill that vacuum? Section 5 argues that stablecoins backed by US Treasury securities fill the vacuum by functioning like a Trojan horse that facilitates trade and then recycles dollars into US Treasuries. Section 6 argues that stablecoins already are significantly enhancing the dominance of the US dollar around the world. The US Government Has Been Losing Its Biggest Bond Buyers In 2011, of the $10.1 trillion in outstanding US Treasury debt, China, Japan, and Canada accounted for 12.9%, 8.7%, and 1.43%, respectively, and 23% collectively. By November 2024, of the $36 trillion in outstanding US Treasury debt, those holdings had dropped to 2.14%, 3.05%, and 0.95%, respectively, and ~6% collectively, as shown in the table and graph below. Year Country/Entity % Of US Debt Held US Treasury Securities Holdings 2011 China 12.9% $1.3 Trillion Japan 8.7% $882 Billion Canada 1.43% $144 Billion Subtotal 23.0% $2.326 Trillion 2024 China 2.14% $768 Billion Japan 3.05% $1.1 Trillion Canada 0.95% $338 Billion Subtotal 6.14% $2.206 Trillion Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from TicData/Treasury.gov. 7 as of May 15, 2025. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. To reiterate, in only ~13 years, the share of US Treasuries held by its largest sovereign creditors plummeted from 23% to just over 6%, as shown in more detail below. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from TicData/Treasury.gov. 8 as of May 15, 2025. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. What Happened? Historically, from year to year, China accumulated US dollars and purchased US Treasuries with its significant trade surpluses. Beijing’s primary motivation may have been to control the yuan-dollar exchange rate and maintain China’s export competitiveness, all central to China’s economic growth and health. Over the past five years, however, China’s trade imbalance has narrowed, and with it the demand for US Treasuries. The US-China trade data shows a trade deficit of $419.2 billion in 2018 compared to a deficit of $295.4 billion in 2024, narrowing by more than 29% in just 6 years. 9 Geopolitical shifts have accelerated that trend. Sanctions in response to the war in Ukraine forced Russia to seek or rely more heavily on alternative trade partners, importantly Beijing. Today, as evidence of the dramatic move toward de-dollarization, Russia and China settle 92% of their trade deals in rubles and yuan. 10 As trade tensions have escalated, including the national security-related sanctions associated with the race to artificial general intelligence ((AGI)), Chinese policymakers have been facing mounting pressure to lower their reliance on US financial services and securities. On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump held his “Liberation Day” ceremony and announced sweeping tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances and bolstering domestic industries 11 : Universal: A 10% tariff was imposed on all imports in the US. China: Tariffs on Chinese goods have escalated to 145%, comprising a 125% “reciprocal” tariff and an additional 20% levy linked to fentanyl-related policies. Canada and Mexico: Imports from these countries are subject to a 25% tariff , with certain energy products like crude oil and natural gas facing a reduced 10% tariff . Unless China were to devalue the yuan, as it did during President Trump’s first Administration, tariffs would make Chinese exports to the US significantly more expensive, giving China another reason to focus on other trading partners in the ASEAN, 12 the Middle East, and BRICS 13 nations. In all those markets, China is settling trades increasingly in yuan (CNY), other local currencies, or commodities. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange, for example, settles oil trades in yuan. Moreover, China has become the largest trading partner for many rapidly growing economies across the Global South, including Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and South Africa. Similarly, Japan is grappling with its own economic and demographic concerns, prompting the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to adopt a more hawkish response to inflationary pressures and a tightening labor market. In January 2025, the BOJ raised its short-term interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) 14 to 0.50%, its highest level since 2007. 15 The BOJ also has signaled the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation approaches or exceeds its 2% target. Over the last 30 years, the wide interest rate differential between Japan and the United States has fueled a massive carry trade: investors have borrowed at ultra-low yen rates and invested in higher-yielding, dollar-denominated US Treasuries. According to Charles Schwab, 16 the carry trade has approached over $1 trillion, while Deutsche Bank says that the trade amounts to $20 trillion. 17 While investors have been able to hedge against currency risk using foreign exchange (FX) swaps—so-called “forwards”—the cost of hedging has increased and is eroding the net yield advantage. In the summer of 2024, the carry trade began to unwind suddenly and violently, suggesting that possibly many investors were not fully hedged. If the BOJ were to continue raising interest rates , the carry trade would become that much less attractive. Indeed, Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) would become that much more attractive for local investors, accelerating the shift away from US Treasuries. The Fed Is Unlikely to Buy Treasury Securities Between February 2020 and April 2022, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded from $4 trillion to $9 trillion, before stabilizing around $7.3 trillion in June 2024. 18 Now, quantitative tightening (QT) suggests that the Fed is more of a seller than a buyer of Treasury securities. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from Gov.info (ERP-2025 Table 52) as of May 28, 2025. 19 For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. The Federal Reserve uses quantitative tightening to reduce the size of its balance sheet, allowing maturing securities to roll off without reinvestment. When the Fed sells Treasuries—or refrains from reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds—the open market must absorb the supply of Treasuries, which—all other things equal—tends to push bond prices down and yields up. The Fed is unlikely to resume Treasury purchases in 2025. On February 12, Chairman Powell reaffirmed that “we have ways to go” in reducing the central bank’s bond holdings, explaining that the market is showing no signs that liquidity is deteriorating enough to slow the QT process. 20 As of late February, on a monthly basis, the Fed is allowing ~$25 billion in US Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without reinvestment. 21 Meanwhile, for fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit that will approach 6.4% of gross domestic product (GDP). 22 During the next decade, the cumulative deficit could reach $20 trillion, suggesting that the US Treasury will need to issue at least ~$2 trillion per year in bills, notes, and bonds to finance government spending. While the Trump administration is focused on lowering long-term Treasury yields, the odds seem to favor higher rates, in the absence either of much lower inflation and real growth or of a new source of demand for US Treasury securities. In tandem with a continued drop in demand from the largest holders of US debt and a tariff war that seems to be pushing trade partners to lower significantly their dependence on US securities, the rise in supply could overwhelm bond investors. Could Tether and Circle Take The Baton From China and Japan And Drive The Demand For Treasury Securities Higher Than Expected? During the last few years, despite the Biden Administration’s aversion to digital assets, the stablecoin complex has continued its meteoric rise. In the face of significant volatility in the crypto market, stablecoin issuers quietly accumulated one of the largest holdings of US Treasuries globally, as shown below. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from the United States Treasury 23 as of May 15, 2025. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. On January 31, Tether’s annual attestation revealed stunning 2024 financial results. For 2024, Tether reported $13.7 billion in profits, $6 billion earned in the fourth quarter alone. 24 Also, during the fourth quarter, the company issued $23 billion of its stablecoin, USDT, bringing its total for the year to $45 billion. As of Tether’s last transparency report in March 2025, Tether now holds $98 billion in US treasuries. 25 Meanwhile, as of late January, Circle, the second-largest issuer of stablecoin, namely USDC, held over $22 billion in US Treasuries. 26 Combined, Tether and Circle would be the 18th-largest holder of US debt—trailing South Korea but surpassing Germany. If we take a closer look at the 2024 calendar year, Tether was the 7th largest buyer of US treasuries behind the UK and Singapore, while the largest sellers were China and Japan. Source: Ardoino 2025, based on data from the United States Treasury and Tether as of May 15, 2025. 27 For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results. At the current issuance run rate, we believe they are on track to overtake four to five more nations by year-end. In ARK’s Big Ideas 2025, we estimated that the total supply of stablecoin could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030, as shown below. If Tether and Circle were to maintain their current market shares and their allocations to US Treasury securities, together they could hold more than $660 billion in US Treasuries, coming close to China’s current holdings of $772 billion and trailing only to both China and Japan. Note: “CAGR”: Compound Annual Growth Rate. *Fiat money is a type of currency that is issued by a government and has value because the government declares it to be legal tender. **M2 is a measure of the US money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers’ checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from rwa.xyz (“Stablecoins”) as of December 31, 2024. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. Clearly, Tether, Circle, and the broader stablecoin industry could create one of the largest sources of demand for US Treasuries in the coming years, potentially replacing China and Japan as the top holders by 2030. If so, then the stablecoin industry could contribute importantly to the goal of lowering long-term interest rates in the US. Stablecoins Could Overcome The Impact Of De-Dollarization The de-dollarization movement has two goals: Removing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, particularly the invoicing currency. Preventing the flow of trade surpluses into US government debt. While efforts to replace the US dollar in trade invoicing have gained some traction in emerging markets, they have achieved limited success elsewhere. The war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia accelerated Moscow’s push to rally the BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—around alternative currencies and systems that bypass the SWIFT network. 28 The expansion of the group into BRICS+—with the inclusion of Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—was a clear move to strengthen the coalition and promote a new financial order. In 2024, President Putin introduced a proposed international payments framework known as “BRICS Bridge,” aimed at further facilitating non-dollar transactions. 29 However, the initiative received limited enthusiasm from other member states and was met with skepticism regarding its feasibility and implementation. 30 At the same time, bilateral trade agreements in local currencies have become increasingly popular among BRICS and other emerging economies—examples include recent deals involving India, China, Brazil, and Malaysia. 31 Roughly 50 years ago, the petrodollar agreement cemented the US dollar as the primary invoicing currency for global oil sales. Russia’s response to war -related sanctions was the beginning of the end of that agreement. By late 2023, according to Oilprice.com, 20% of global oil transactions were settled in other currencies. 32 Interestingly, though, those proceeds often are converted back into US dollars. Despite the limited success of many of these de-dollarization attempts, there’s a hard truth to acknowledge: the US, as a standalone economic bloc, is no longer the world’s largest in GDP terms. With the recent addition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia, the BRICS+ bloc reached a combined GDP of $29.8 trillion in 2024, slightly surpassing the US GDP of $29.2 trillion. 33 Over the past two decades, the trend is unmistakably clear: BRICS+ economies have grown significantly faster than the G7, 34 and all signs—particularly demographic momentum—suggest this divergence is likely to persist. Stablecoins are positioned uniquely in the evolving global financial landscape. They serve as the most liquid, efficient, and user-friendly wrapper for short-term US debt, effectively addressing both obstacles associated with de-dollarization: maintaining the US dollar’s dominance in global transactions while ensuring sustained demand for US Treasuries. Put differently, every time an Argentinian, Turkish, or Nigerian citizen purchases stablecoins such as USDT or USDC, they reinforce the dollar as the preferred invoicing currency while creating demand for short-term US debt. As a result, stablecoins have become a Trojan horse for US debt, ensuring continued—if not higher—demand for US Treasuries from a growing base of global users, even in regions, mentioned above, seeking to disengage from traditional US financial systems. While the petrodollar agreement officially ended last year, a similar unspoken agreement effectively has been taking place that could be just as critical in the coming decades. If someone wishes to purchase bitcoin, ether, or any other digital asset outside the US, the US dollar is the currency required for most of those transactions in the most liquid exchanges around the world. That financial moat has been in place for more than five years: dollar-denominated stablecoin—particularly USDT—has been the primary trading pair on major Asian exchanges such as Binance, OKX, Upbit, Bybit, and Bithumb. Looking at the largest crypto exchange in the world, Binance’s proof of reserves shows that of the $166 billion of its token balances, customers have over $34 billion in USDT and $6 billion in USDC. The demand to trade crypto commodities like [[BTC-USD]], [[ETH-USD]], and [[SOL-USD]] priced in USD has created a tremendous demand for USDC and USDT abroad. The Rise of Stablecoins as Internet-Native Dollar Infrastructure As of October 2024, Tether reported that over 330 million on-chain wallets and accounts have held USDT, with 86 million of those holding USDT on centralized exchanges like Binance and OKX. 35 In total, approximately 416 million wallets have interacted with USDT in some capacity. Tether currently holds 70% of the total stablecoin market share. Given that Tether reported approximately 400 million addresses, it is reasonable to estimate that the total number of addresses holding stablecoins globally is close to 570 million. 36 That said, individuals and businesses often use multiple wallets, and many addresses belong to exchanges, custodians, or institutions that pool funds from numerous users into a single address. According to Chainalysis’ 2024 report, roughly 30-40% of addresses are attributed to individual users, which suggests that the number of individuals holding stablecoins worldwide is between 170 million and 230 million. 37 This estimate aligns well with other available data. For instance, we know that roughly 40 million wallets are active monthly, and at the upper end, an estimated 600 million people hold cryptocurrency globally. 38 An interesting exercise in this context is to compare the number of stablecoin holders to traditional US dollar holders, accounting for US dollars held in paper dollars/physical cash and in bank accounts: Paper Dollars: As of 2022, approximately $2.3 trillion in US currency was in circulation, 50% outside the US, according to various estimates. 39 At an average of $1,000 per person, ~1 billion people would hold physical US cash globally. Electronic Dollars: The Bank for International Settlements ((BIS)) reports that cross-border US dollar liabilities total $12 trillion, including interbank transactions. 40 This figure encompasses deposits from both institutions and individuals outside the US. If we assume that a quarter of this total is held by households, that amounts to $3.2 trillion in personal USD deposits. Assuming an average USD balance of $5,000, this suggests that approximately 640 million people worldwide hold US bank deposits. If we assume that half of the individuals holding US dollars in digital form also hold US dollars in cash, we can estimate an overlap of approximately 320 million. In sum, Estimated Total Unique US Dollar Holders Worldwide appear as follows: Category US Dollars Held Outside US Original Estimate (Number Of Individuals) Conservative Estimate (Number Of Individuals) Cash $1 Trillion 1,000 Million 500 Million Electronic Dollars $3.2 Trillion 640 Million 320 Million Estimated Overlap – 320 Million 160 Million Total Unique Individuals – 1,000M + 640M – 320M = 1,320 Million 500M + 320M – 160M = 660 Million Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025, based on data from Bein Crypto and Chainalysis as of December 31, 2024. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency. In just over five years, stablecoins have hit ~200 million users worldwide, capturing 15-20% of the total number of non-US resident dollar holders—a staggering feat, considering that the US dollar has been in circulation for centuries. Given USDT’s strong presence in emerging markets as well as its status as the stablecoin with the largest supply, we can assume USDT holders constitute a significant percentage of net new dollar holders, with lower overlap than paper dollars and dollar accounts. Although once misunderstood and criticized, stablecoins went through a dramatic transformation in the wake of the [[FTX-USD]] and [[LUNA-USD]] debacles. Indeed, the Trump Administration, its new crypto czar, and many legislators are heralding stablecoins as a strategic asset, effectively strengthening US dollar dominance worldwide by creating sustained demand for US Treasuries. As a result, Tether, Circle, and the broader stablecoin industry could evolve into one of the US government’s most reliable and resilient financial allies, reinforcing the dollar’s role in global trade while ensuring long-term support for Treasury securities. M2 is a measure of the US money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers’ checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. Based on data from DefiLlama. 2025. “Stablecoins.” Rwa.xyz. 2025. “Stablecoins.” USA Facts. 2024. “Which countries own the most US debt?” Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a monetary policy tool used by central banks—like the U.S. Federal Reserve—to reduce the money supply and tighten financial conditions, typically in response to high inflation or an overheated economy. ARK Investment Management LLC. 2025. “Big Ideas 2025.” TicData, Treasury.gov. 2025. “MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES.” Ibid. Ibid. U.S. Office of Technology Evaluation. 2018. “U.S. Trade with China.” Bohannon, M. and A. Pequeño IV. 2025. “Here’s The Full List Of Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Announced Wednesday.” Forbes. ASEAN refers to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Timor-Leste. BRICS nations include Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of a percentage point (1 bp = .01%), therefore 25 bps = .25%. Mukherjee, V. 2025. “Bank of Japan raises interest rates to highest level since 2008 at 0.5%.” Business Standard. Charles Schwab. 2024. “Carry Trade Unwind: Is It Really Over?” Mukherjee, V. 2023. “Japan’s $20 trn ‘carry trade’ poses risks amid central bank’s policy shift.” Business Standard. Thiagarjan, R. et al. 2024. “Who Will Buy the Oncoming Surge of Treasuries? And at What Price?” State Street. Info.gov. 2025. “ERP-2025 Table 52.” (via https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2025/pdf/ERP-2025-table52.pdf) Cox, J. 2025. “Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves.” CNBC. Thiagarjan, R. et al. 2024. “Who Will Buy the Oncoming Surge of Treasuries? And at What Price?” State Street. Congressional Budget Office. 2025. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035.” TicData, Treasury.gov. 2025. “MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES.” Tether. 2025. “Q4 2024 Attestation Report.” Ibid. Deloitte. 2025. “INDEPENDENT ACCOUNTANTS’ REPORT, to Board of Directors and Management Circle Internet Group, Inc.” Ardoino, P. 2025. “Tether was the 7th largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries in 2024…” X. See also TicData, Treasury.gov. 2025. “MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES.” See also Deloitte. 2025. “INDEPENDENT ACCOUNTANTS’ REPORT, to Board of Directors and Management Circle Internet Group, Inc.” The SWIFT Network (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) provides the main messaging network through which international payments are initiated. Finneseth, J. 2024. “BRICS Bridge digital payment system ‘will be a bombshell globally’ – Chair of Russia’s Federation Council.” Kitco. Ibid. Ani. 2025. “Amid tariff war with US, China and Malaysia sign deals during Xi Jinping’s visit?” Big News Network. See also Reuters. 2025. “Brazil central bank to sign currency swap deal with China’s PBOC.” See also Civils Daily. No Date. “De-dollarisation: Is it a gateway to rupeefication?” Based on data from Oilprice.com as of December 2023. Bureau of Economic analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. 2025. “Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate).” See also Conte, N. 2023. “Charted: Comparing the GDP of BRICS and the G7 Countries.” Visual Capitalist. The Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental forum composed of seven of the world’s leading industrialized nations: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Ardoino, P. 2025. “Today Tether USDt has (conservatively) more than 400 million users…” X. Rahma, B. 2024. “There Are Now 580 Million Crypto Holders Around the World.” Be(in)Crypto. Based on data from Chainalysis as of December 2024. Rahma, B. 2024. “There Are Now 580 Million Crypto Holders Around the World.” Be(in)Crypto. U.S. Currency Education Program. 2023. “U.S. Currency in Circulation.” Bank for International Settlements ((BIS)) 2022. “Global Banks, Dollar Funding, and Regulation.” Disclosure ARK’s statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. For a list of all purchases and sales made by ARK for client accounts during the past year that could be considered by the SEC as recommendations, click here . It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. For full disclosures, click here . ©2021-2026, ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK” ® ”ARK Invest”). All content is original and has been researched and produced by ARK unless otherwise stated. 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