Bitcoin: The Fruit Of The Genius Act, Reflections On The Price Action (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Bitcoin surpassed its all-time highs, shortly before Pizza Day, driven by new inflows and expectations of favorable stablecoin regulation (the GENIUS Act). Institutional adoption seems to support Bitcoin, with major banking figures shifting their stance and supporting Bitcoin. Bitcoin maintains a solitary growth, while gold and the S&P 500 lag behind, even though I still expect an increasing correlation with the U.S. equity sector. I maintain my bullish targets for Bitcoin: The first is at $120–130K, as current demand exceeds halving-based models, fueled by regulatory optimism. I’m concerned that all this enthusiasm is coming right before a new wave of negativity for the S&P 500. Bitcoin and the S&P have strong correlations during periods of high negative volatility. What do Bitcoin, stocks, and gold not have in common? Only Bitcoin has surpassed its all-time highs again, and its realized cap exceeds $900B for the first time. Coinciding with a curious anniversary, the Pizza Day , this record becomes even more theatrical. A theatricality that does not seem to characterize the other asset classes (or rather, unless it’s a drama); in fact, while stocks are stalling with Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating , bonds are plummeting, and gold remains below its highs, at the mercy of the risk-on wave, the only one to surpass its previous market cap is Bitcoin. It’s something to think about, but also something to smile at; considering that in our last update on Bitcoin , we ended with a provocative quote from Eugene Fama on the Capitalisn’t podcast: “Bitcoin will go to zero.” which sparked a lively discussion in the comments. Why is Bitcoin rising? A +40% since April 8th, which recalls President Donald Trump’s announcement of a pause in tariff levels . A logical connection that seems flawless, linking Bitcoin’s trend to the global economy, which drives the prevailing journalistic narrative. A narrative that, however, does not seem to be pushing other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, equally high. Data by YCharts So what is, then, that added value, the real narrative driving Bitcoin whale demand? In my opinion, it is the expectation of favorable regulations from the administration. The real narrative movement supporting the inflow of about $7.45 billion into ETFs recorded since April 18th (which I identify as the start of the bull run) is the idea that there will indeed be regulatory action on stablecoins. Initially, it was the idea that President Donald Trump, in addition to “meetings” with the major holders of his memecoin, maybe during some dinner at his Washington golf club, would finally take a step forward toward that “new” monetary system. Now the reality: the GENIUS Act , a real action plan for the creation of a regulatory framework for stablecoins. What makes sense to expect if we follow this narrative? If this narrative is followed, it gives the perception of a different context, which, in my opinion, implies greater institutional acceptance. Interesting in this sense is the mindset shift of some of the biggest banking figures, such as Jamie Dimon himself (CEO of JPMorgan), who called it “ a fraud ,” only to become, six years later, one of the main players alongside BlackRock. But his radical change of opinion is just one among many, including Ray Dalio himself, or Larry Fink . Institutionalization will lead but is already leading, to greater adoption, which in my opinion can effectively make Bitcoin decorrelated from the assets typically referenced in an intermarket perspective: mainly gold (positively), the dollar (negatively), and Treasury yields (negatively). And I believe it’s only a matter of time before its performance increasingly aligns with that of the S&P 500, naturally maintaining an amplified beta (which it already partly does, as we will see shortly). Data by YCharts That said, what to expect? In this article , I provided some targets derived from the study of the main mathematical models for Bitcoin. My personal reworking of that data had identified two target prices: the first is at $120–130K (based on the study of the rainbow chart), and the second is at $158K, following the stock-to-flow model. I am not changing the reference targets. BTCUSD – Target price (Seeking Alpha) For completeness, I had also calculated the halving price regression , highlighting how, if BTC-USD had followed this model (which described the past trend), it would have ended the cycle with the highs of the past few months (specifically just below $100K). The fact that it has broken the highs again, and with strength, shows how Bitcoin demand is actually supported by a narrative in addition to that of the halving (which mainly relies on Bitcoin as a safe haven), which I believe is precisely the “GENIUS Act fever.” Risk But let’s get to the heart of the article: the S&P 500 is struggling due to fiscal pressures from U.S. debt and the contraction of EPS, while Bitcoin is strongly breaking all-time highs on Pizza Day. Maybe it’s not the kind of phrase a proper “analyst” would use, but it’s a coincidence that actually worries me. Also because, didn’t we say that Bitcoin’s price would increasingly align with the S&P 500? Well, in that regard, I think it’s fundamental to know that, as of today, there is already a particular convergence in the movements of these two assets, but mainly at the negative extreme of the volatility distribution. Data by YCharts This basically means that when there is damage on the streets of Wall Street, there is also damage on-chain; a piece of evidence that could be interpreted as a risk, or rather, that I, personally, consider a risk: let’s say the dark side of institutionalization. And I know, the S&P 500, with the tariff rollback, has risen, but maybe it’s also somewhat oblivious to the fiscal danger signaled by the surge in Treasuries and the Moody’s downgrade. And Bitcoin has done the same, replicating that movement with amplified beta. So I think that if the stock market mispriced the May recovery from a forward-looking perspective, any spikes in volatility (a crash of the S&P 500) would not benefit the price of Bitcoin. Conclusion I’ve been bullish on Bitcoin since my first coverage, and I believe the strong breakout of the all-time highs is an equally positive signal. I find it curious that it happened close to Pizza Day, a peculiar conjunction of events that usually makes me raise my antennas and think about a possible sudden and contrarian move. This is just a feeling I wanted to share with you and an element that I personally consider risky. But as they say in these cases, data stays, and opinions change. So, following a data-dependent approach, I maintain the previously identified targets, remaining particularly positive regarding the GENIUS Act as a catalyst.

Source: Seeking Alpha