Bitcoin Busts Through $100,000, Eyeing New Targets On BITB (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Bitcoin has surged over 30% from April lows, driven by a risk-on sentiment following a US-UK trade deal, reaching multi-month highs. I am upgrading the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF to a buy due to strong technicals, bullish momentum, and a supportive macro backdrop. BITB offers low-cost exposure to Bitcoin, with significant inflows and strong performance metrics, making it an attractive investment for diversification. Bitcoin’s seasonal trends and technical indicators suggest further upside, with key support at $75,000 and potential to surpass $110,000. After three long months, Bitcoin finally recaptured the $100,000 level on news that the US and UK reached a trade deal. It was a general risk-on sentiment that helped lift the world’s biggest cryptocurrency to multi-month highs, a more than 30% rally from its April lows. What I have found particularly interesting is that bitcoin has traded, at times, like a defensive asset. It and gold have traded places as the major macro asset to own amid uncertainty about where the global economy is headed. For now, though, bitcoin may be turning back to its risk-on status as volatility has subsided in equities. I was cautious about the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) last July . Technicals were concerning, in my view, back then, and the fund went on to tag key support and a long-term buy point that I had outlined on the chart. With shares up 78% since then (and much of that gain coming just in the last handful of weeks), I am upgrading BITB to a buy based on sanguine momentum factors and a macro backdrop that could support bitcoin writ large. Bitcoin Rallies Through $100,000, a Three-Month High TradingView According to the issuer , BITB allows investors to gain convenient, low-cost exposure to bitcoin through a professionally managed ETF. This may avoid the cost, complexity, and custody concerns of owning Bitcoin directly. Bitcoin has distinct return patterns and historically low correlations to traditional stocks and bonds. As a result, Bitcoin can offer long-term diversification and risk management benefits to an overall investment portfolio. BIT is a medium-sized ETF, now with $3.7 billion in assets under management as of May 7, 2025. That’s up significantly from just $2.3 billion at the start of the second half of last year. Indeed, money has poured into crypto lately. BofA points out that as of late April, flows have climbed markedly. Crypto Inflows Coming Back BofA Global Research BITB features a low annual expense ratio of 20 basis points and, of course, does not pay a dividend . Its share-price momentum is very strong right now, and I think that will persist. I’ll outline later that if we see the all-time high eclipsed on both BITB and bitcoin, then a major leg higher could ensue. BITB is volatile , as prospective investors probably would surmise, as a result of the large daily swings in what is generally among the more stable tokens (sans stablecoins). BITB scores well with its ETF liquidity grade , according to Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system—average daily volume is above 1.3 million shares, while the median 30-day bid/ask spread is tight at just four basis points, per Bitwise. Mentioned previously, bitcoin and gold are doing a bit of a dance right now. Bitcoin has clearly gained the lead step as it notches multi-month highs and gold settles in below $3,500 per ounce. So, I expect BITB’s Sharpe Ratio to improve as the second quarter progresses. Gold Had A Huge Rally, But Bitcoin With Emerging Relative Strength Lately Jurien Timmer, Fidelity Seasonally, there’s reason to be bullish over the months ahead, too. According to price data going back to 2010, the May through July stretch has historically been very strong. While calendar trends should not be taken in isolation, it’s a sanguine factor to weigh. Bitcoin: Bullish Seasonal Trends Through July Barchart The Technical Take Since Bitcoin does not produce cash flow and there are no financial statements to parse through, the chart should be analyzed closely. Notice in the graph below that Bitcoin itself held key long-term support with precision in early April. The $75,000 level just about matched the March 2024 peak—a time that marked the start of a long consolidation. After an upside breakout following President Trump’s win last November, a fast rally to near $110,000 ensued. But take a look at where support initially emerged—in the low $90k zone. Once it was breached, the bears took control, bringing bitcoin to the early 2024 mark. The token also dropped below its long-term 200-day moving average and the 50dma. The key, however, was that the 200dma remained trending higher, suggesting that the long-term trend was not damaged. Today, with a new high in the RSI momentum oscillator at the top of the chart, we find that the price thrust has confirmed with momentum, which I like to see. It’s also consistent that a bullish RSI divergence occurred at the April nadir, helping to cement a bottom. A key risk is that there remains a high amount of bitcoin traded between $100,000 and $110,000—I boxed the volume increase around the turn of the year, and that could be bearish supply. Thus, the bulls still have some work cut out for them. Bitcoin: $110,000 All-Time High In View, $74,000 Long-Term Support, Bullish RSI Confirmation, Rising 200dma Stockcharts.com Looking closer in on BITB, a downtrend resistance line was broken in April. Then, a bull flag pattern emerged—the subsequent breakout just this week creates a measured move upside price objective to about $63 based on the height of the pole and depth of the flag. Near-term support is between $50 and $51. BITB: Targeting $63 As Momentum Builds, $50 Support Stockcharts.com The Bottom Line I have a buy rating on BITB. I see the spot bitcoin ETF as featuring strong technicals, bullish seasonality, and high relative strength to the stock market and gold lately.

Source: Seeking Alpha