Bitcoin eyes $100K as market sentiment rebounds; Virtual surges 100%

It was another week of recovery for both Bitcoin and altcoins as the flagship crypto slowly climbed towards the $100k mark for the first time since February. As bullish sentiment returned, the total crypto market cap climbed almost 3.5% to stabilise around $3.11 trillion on Friday. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index cooled off after hitting a multi-month high of 72 last week, but still closed the current week in “greed” at 67, suggesting that some caution remains. The altcoin sector saw more modest action compared to Bitcoin, with most top cryptocurrencies giving up last week’s gains, and only a handful managing to hold on to double-digit returns. Altcoin trading remained relatively muted, hinting that traders were still sitting on the sidelines, weighing macro cues before making riskier bets. Why is Bitcoin going up? Macroeconomic data dominated sentiment through the week, keeping Bitcoin rangebound as traders waited for clarity on the Fed’s next move. The first catalyst came midweek with the release of US PCE inflation data, which showed no month-on-month growth and a continued decline in core PCE to 2.6%, its lowest reading in nearly a year. The figures were stable, but not soft enough to justify an immediate rate cut, prompting a brief dip in crypto prices. The cautious mood deepened after fresh labour market data showed signs of cooling. ADP’s private payroll report came in well below expectations, while first estimates for Q1 GDP revealed a surprise 0.3% contraction. The downturn was largely driven by a spike in imports ahead of Trump’s new tariff wave, reinforcing investor concerns around slowing growth and elevated trade tensions. However, sentiment began to recover on Friday following a statement from China’s commerce ministry expressing openness to trade talks with the US. The news sparked optimism across global markets, lifting Bitcoin past $97,000 as hopes for de-escalation in the ongoing tariff standoff gained traction. Momentum strengthened further after April’s nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, easing fears of a deeper slowdown. While the Fed is still expected to hold rates steady next week, markets are now more confident that easing could come later this summer, especially with Trump renewing pressure on the central bank to cut. As of late Asian trading hours on Friday, bulls were back in control, pushing Bitcoin toward the $98,000 level and setting the stage for a potential breakout toward six figures in the days ahead. Will Bitcoin hit $100k? The answer may rest heavily on geopolitics, particularly the thawing trade tensions between the US and China. Analysts now view May as a crucial month. As Nansen’s Aurelie Barthere explains, exemptions on several tariff categories—including auto parts and low-value shipments—are set to expire. If no progress is made this month, recession risks could grow, dragging Bitcoin and other speculative assets down. However, Barthere believes a deal or “agreement in principle” is more likely, with both sides keen to avoid economic disruption. Beyond trade tensions, recession fears are also back in focus. Analysts at Apollo Global have warned that the US could slip into a recession by summer, pointing to the biggest drop in corporate earnings expectations since 2020. While a slowdown could initially pressure Bitcoin, some analysts say it might ultimately benefit from the shift in Fed policy expectations. Historical trends show Bitcoin has performed strongly in post-recession environments, particularly when monetary easing follows. Most analysts were bullish regarding the short-term price action over the weekend. According to Cas Abbé, spot demand will be the real deciding factor for what comes next for Bitcoin. “If there is a spike in Coinbase Bitcoin Premium during US hours, my bet will be to the upside. If BTC fails to attract spot demand, I think we could see a long squeeze with BTC potentially reaching the $94K to $95K level,” Abbé wrote in a May 2 post. Others like Nonzee also echoed similar sentiment, as he shared a Wyckoff accumulation schematic suggesting Bitcoin is nearing the final phase of a breakout structure. According to a chart he shared, Bitcoin appears to have completed its “spring” and “test” phases, key markers in Wyckoff theory that often precede a strong upside move. Bitcoin/USD 1-day chart. Source: Nonzee Offering an alternate perspective, well-followed analyst Ted added that Offering an alternate perspective, well-followed analyst Ted said that Bitcoin may still need a brief consolidation phase before its next leg higher. According to Ted, the $96K–$99K zone could act as near-term resistance, with price action potentially stalling there for a few days. However, he expects Bitcoin to eventually break out to the upside, continuing its recovery in line with the Wyckoff structure’s “Sign of Strength” phase. When writing, Bitcoin was trading at $97,423.72, up 2% in the past days. Altcoins’ momentum is yet to return Broader crypto markets followed Bitcoin’s lead, with most major altcoins posting modest gains. Ethereum rose 1.4% to $1,838, XRP edged up 0.5% to $2.22, while Solana and Cardano added 0.6% and 2.7% respectively. Dogecoin led the pack with a 3.3% surge. The total altcoin market cap rose just over 1.6%, holding steady around the $1.2 trillion mark. While altcoin season hasn’t kicked off yet, Bitcoin’s dominance climbed to 64.89% this week, its highest level since January 2021, raising speculation that it could be around the corner. According to Rekt Capital, traders may need to wait until Bitcoin dominance approaches the 71% level, where past rejections have typically triggered sharp altcoin rallies. Still, several top altcoins outperformed the market this week, logging double-digit gains. The top performers were: Virtuals Protocol Virtual Protocol (VIRTUAL) soared over 100% in the past 7 days, hitting a 3-month high of $1.86 as of press time. Its market cap crossed the $1.2 billion mark, though daily trading volume was down 45% from the previous day, sitting at $371 million, hinting that trading activity is starting to cool off a bit. Source: CoinMarketCap The main driver behind this week’s gains was the successful rollout of Virtual’s Genesis Launch update. This update introduced several key features, like letting developers auto-lock their token allocations and set up transparent vesting schedules. Another major boost came from the announcement that Recognized Staked Agents are now eligible to earn points in the ecosystem, opening up new incentives for participants, rewarding those actively staking and engaging with the platform. VIRTUAL also gained steam from its recent listing on crypto exchange Binance.US, which likely attracted fresh investor interest and liquidity, pulling in both retail and institutional buyers. Solayer Over the past week, Solayer (LAYER) climbed 29% to $3.03, lifting its market cap to over $638 million. However, daily trading volume slipped 22% over the past day, settling at around $146 million at the time of writing. Source: CoinMarketCap The week’s gains appear largely tied to renewed market attention following the reveal of the Solayer Emerald Card. The card allows users to spend USDC directly via Visa without converting to fiat, and also offers an annual yield option through sUSD, a stablecoin backed by US Treasury bills. Additionally, the Emerald Card includes a rewards system where transactions generate points, which can be exchanged for LAYER tokens, partner airdrops, or referral bonuses. Monero Monero (XMR) was up 26% over the past week, trading at $288.7 at the time of writing. Its market cap stood at $5.3 billion, with daily trading volume hovering over $120.7 million. Source: CoinMarketCap While no major positive development or news could be identified as of press time, part of this recent surge appears linked to on-chain activity flagged by blockchain investigator ZachXBT, who identified a suspicious transfer of 3,520 BTC (worth about $330.7 million) that was later swapped into XMR. The large-scale conversion led to a sharp price surge, which likely drew the attention of day traders and scalpers, further contributing to the token’s sharp price increase. The post Bitcoin eyes $100K as market sentiment rebounds; Virtual surges 100% appeared first on Invezz

Source: Invezz