Altcoin ETFs Gain Ground with Solana Leading SEC Approval Forecasts

The momentum behind altcoin ETFs continues to build as Bloomberg Intelligence significantly raises its approval forecasts for several major cryptocurrency funds. Solana leads the charge with a 90% chance of US regulatory approval for a spot ETF by 2025, up from 70% earlier this year. XRP and Dogecoin have also seen their approval odds climb, driven by growing institutional interest, an influx of ETF filings, and a shift in regulatory posture under the current administration. As the SEC faces upcoming review deadlines, the altcoin ETF landscape is rapidly evolving. XRP Eyes $3.74 Breakout as ETF Optimism Fuels Investor Momentum XRP is showing signs of a potential breakout as investor sentiment turns increasingly bullish. Market analysts and traders are closely watching the token’s price action, with many citing a confluence of technical patterns and regulatory optimism that could see the altcoin retest its April high of $2.36—and potentially rally as high as $3.74 in the short term. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $2.20 and is locked within a classic ”falling wedge” pattern on the daily chart, a technical formation often associated with trend reversals to the upside. This bullish setup is characterized by two converging trendlines that connect lower highs and lower lows, signaling a weakening of bearish momentum. A confirmed breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline, currently sitting at $2.40, could trigger a rally of up to 71%, with a projected target of $3.74 based on pattern measurements. XRP/USD daily chart (Source:TradingView) Adding fuel to this momentum is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently hovers above its midline. This technical signal reflects that buying pressure remains strong and that the overall trend still favors a continuation to the upside. However, for XRP to realize this bullish potential, it must first maintain support at the $2.20 level and then break through the critical resistance band between $2.80 and $3.00. Market watchers view this zone as a major supply wall that previously triggered heavy selling activity. Despite short-term volatility, several prominent analysts remain confident in XRP’s ability to not only retest former highs but push significantly beyond them. Trader Dark Defender recently stated that XRP is moving in accordance with an Elliott Wave structure, suggesting that the current correction phase is part of a larger bullish wave cycle. According to Defender, the recent dip is a healthy part of XRP’s long-term price structure and paves the way for further gains. Another bullish voice, trader Allincrypto, has made a bold prediction that XRP could eventually surge to $19.27 based on long-term chart projections. Referencing the same falling wedge pattern, Allincrypto described the recent retracement as “textbook perfect,” reinforcing the narrative of a continuation rally ahead. ETF Approval Odds Improve Sharply Beyond the technical landscape, macro-regulatory developments are giving XRP an additional tailwind. The growing likelihood of a US-approved spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has become a major narrative, with Bloomberg senior ETF analysts now placing the odds of approval in 2025 at 85%. This marks a notable increase from the 65% probability projected just two months ago. The shift in sentiment is attributed to the recent leadership changes at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which many market participants interpret as signaling a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. ETFs from prominent asset managers like Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Canary, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares are currently under review. Betting markets also echo this optimism. On Polymarket, the probability of an XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025 has jumped to 80%, up from 63% just a week earlier. This surge reflects growing investor confidence in the regulatory green light, which could potentially unlock a wave of institutional capital and drive XRP demand to new heights. XRP ETF approval odds on Polymarket (Source: Polymarket) However, not all hurdles have been cleared. On April 29, the SEC delayed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s application, resetting the next review date to June 17. While this postponement introduces short-term uncertainty, analysts generally agree that the delay is procedural rather than indicative of rejection. Institutional Demand on the Horizon The broader implications of a spot XRP ETF are substantial. Approval would provide institutional investors with a regulated and familiar entry point into the XRP market, potentially transforming the token’s liquidity profile and overall demand. Just as spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have helped drive inflows from traditional finance, a greenlit XRP product could mark a major milestone in the asset’s journey toward mainstream adoption. For now, XRP remains at a technical crossroads. Traders are watching closely for a breakout above the falling wedge, which could serve as the catalyst for another leg higher. Meanwhile, the regulatory drumbeat continues to echo in the background, offering a unique blend of chart-driven opportunity and fundamental tailwinds. Bloomberg Raises Solana ETF Approval Odds to 90% as Altcoin ETF Wave Gains Momentum In related news, the likelihood of US regulators approving a spot Solana (SOL) ETF by 2025 has surged dramatically, according to a new forecast from Bloomberg Intelligence. In an April 30 update posted to X, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that the firm now assigns a 90% probability for a Solana ETF getting the green light from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) next year—up from just 70% in February. This significant revision reflects what Bloomberg analysts describe as an improving regulatory landscape for digital assets in the United States. Alongside Solana, the odds of ETF approval for other major altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin have also improved, now standing at 85% and 80%, respectively, according to the latest Bloomberg estimates. As of April 30, six asset managers—including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares—have submitted applications to launch Solana-based ETFs. The same number of issuers are pursuing ETFs tied to XRP, while three firms have filed to list Dogecoin ETFs. In total, up to 70 crypto ETF filings are now awaiting review by the SEC, marking an unprecedented level of institutional interest in altcoin-backed investment products. According to Bloomberg, the SEC has until October to deliver final decisions on many of the pending applications. While the regulatory body has a history of extending deliberations, the political climate and growing demand from both retail and institutional investors are exerting pressure to expedite approvals. The surge in applications also follows the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) move in March to list Solana futures—an event that analysts and industry insiders see as a potential precursor to spot ETF approval. Improved Outlook for XRP and Dogecoin The renewed optimism is not limited to Solana. Bloomberg has also raised the odds of approval for ETFs tied to XRP and Dogecoin, noting that investor interest and institutional infrastructure around these assets have grown substantially. XRP has benefited from its partial legal victory over the SEC and has since re-entered the conversation as a candidate for wider institutional adoption. Six XRP ETF filings are currently on the SEC’s docket, mirroring the level of interest seen in Solana. Meanwhile, Dogecoin—a cryptocurrency born as a meme but now supported by figures like Elon Musk and used in experimental payment systems—has seen increasing legitimacy in financial markets. In April, Nasdaq requested permission to list a 21Shares ETF holding Dogecoin, reinforcing the growing institutional appetite for the asset. Despite the enthusiasm, analysts caution that final approvals may not come until late 2025 or early 2026, depending on how quickly the SEC moves through its review process. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously noted that the agency often takes between 240 and 260 days to fully assess such filings. Political Winds Favor Crypto The regulatory optimism is closely tied to the Trump administration’s evolving stance on digital assets. Since returning to office, President Trump has moved to replace SEC leadership and reduce what many view as excessive scrutiny over the crypto industry. These actions have been met with praise from pro-crypto lawmakers and industry groups who have long called for clearer guidelines and fairer treatment. This changing environment has energized asset managers, who see altcoin ETFs as the next logical step following the successful launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Analysts say approval of these products would open new doors for institutional capital to flow into the broader crypto market, potentially boosting prices and deepening market liquidity.

Source: Coinpaper