FETH: Inflows Are Back, But Ethereum Is Losing Its Investment Appeal

Summary Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF leads spot ETH ETF inflows with $32.7 million, marking a break from a prolonged outflow streak. Despite the short-term bounce, Ethereum’s institutional narrative is stalling, with capital rotation favoring Bitcoin, and now possibly Solana. SOL’s comeback narrative is resonating with institutions, positioning it as a potential rival if a spot SOL ETF is approved. The market is so back – or so it seems. Ethereum USD ( ETH-USD ) and its spot ETFs are back from the dead. The spot Ethereum ETFs saw inflows after about two months of outflow streak. The Fidelity Ethereum Fund ETF ( FETH ) led the inflows yesterday with $32.7 million of inflows or 19,235.03 ETH and commanded over 80% of the total inflows of $38.8 million. FETH now has 382,760 ETH in its trust. Spot Ethereum ETF cumulative net inflows (SoSoValue) Since launch FETH has seen $1.4 billion in cumulative inflows. For comparison, Bitwise Ethereum ETF ( ETHW ), one of the largest funds, has recorded $314.5 million in cumulative inflows, FETH only lags behind iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ( ETHA ) in net inflows and surpasses all the other ETFs’ cumulative inflows combined, save ETHA. All the spot Ethereum ETFs are identical in structure and all track ETH spot price, so a choice of one over the other is merely a matter of brand perception or trading convenience. ETH’s fundamental outlook is what truly deserves scrutiny when analyzing the ETFs. For the purpose of this article, I’ll be referencing FETH, while analyzing ETH’s current market appeal, and the broader investment narrative that’s starting to move away from it. The investor activity in the past month begins to tell us which crypto asset continues to capture real, sustained institutional appeal for the longer term. The launch of the spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum has created a type of capital influx and institutional influence that now overrides on-chain metrics. A crypto asset could have stellar on-chain metrics but not appeal to investors. Believe it or not, the irrationality often seen in the traditional markets, where fundamentals sometimes deviate from valuation, is catching up to crypto. Ethereum institutional interest is dwindling, despite the price recovery this week. The market (both stocks and crypto) is generally on a “sympathy rally” and the best ETH could do from here is likely limited upside in the short term, driven more by broader risk-on sentiment rather than the asset’s own strength. In contrast with BTC, this is evident in how quickly BTC has reclaimed $90,000, while ETH still struggles to break $1,800, and might face resistance towards the $2,000 mark, even if it breaks $1,800, as this “sympathy rally” eases. Institutions love Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ). The store of value narrative is a big draw for Bitcoin. For ETH, there is currently not much incentive for institutions to hold the asset or its spot ETFs. Staking approval in the spot ETF, the only foreseeable catalyst that could change this dynamic, is likely not happening soon. That’s if it will ever get approved. I went into detailed coverage of Ethereum’s Spot ETF Staking in an article published here on Seeking Alpha earlier this month. Further proof of dwindling institutional interest for ETH spot ETFs is how the percentage of the total crypto spot ETF flows that the spot Ethereum ETFs commanded at launch have gone very low, while that of Bitcoin has held up well. theblock (theblock) Yes, Bitcoin also sees periods of outflows, but in periods with inflows streaks, the size of the inflows remains consistent with its historical inflow numbers. Bitcoin typically maintains anywhere from $500 million to $1 billion of daily inflows when market sentiment is positive. Yesterday’s inflow into the spot Bitcoin ETFs was $912 million. Bitcoin has maintained impressive consistency with its peak inflow periods. Coinglass In contrast, when the Ethereum spot ETFs launched in July last year, they saw inflows of about $100 million. That quickly fizzled out in the weeks/months that followed with choppy and inconsistent inflows. Then in early December last year, as the market surged following President Trump’s election victory, there was a record inflow of around $430 million into the spot Ethereum ETFs. Then another notable inflow of $307 million in early February, before the months-long outflow streaks began. ETH seems to be facing descending resistance in its inflows, with each positive streak lower than the last, while Bitcoin maintains a consistent and resilient demand profile from institutions. Yesterday’s $38.8 million inflow into the spot Ethereum ETFs despite the broader bullish momentum in the markets, shows just how tepid and selective institutional interest in Ethereum has become. Solana Is “Stealing” Ethereum’s Appeal Solana USD ( SOL-USD ) hasn’t seen a spot ETF approval yet, but SOL seems to be becoming the institution’s next darling after Bitcoin. This is not a straightforward comparison where there is head-to-head data to prove the institution’s love of SOL over Ethereum, especially as SOL doesn’t have a spot ETF yet; however, SOL’s institutional appeal is beginning to show in more subtle ways. First is the adoption of SOL as a treasury asset. More publicly traded companies are showing interest in adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet as a treasury strategy, following in MicroStrategy Incorporated’s ( MSTR ) footsteps. Companies that have made actual purchases for their crypto treasury include Semler Scientific, Inc. ( SLMR ) and Metaplanet Inc. ( MTPLF ), among others. GameStop Corp. ( GME ) recently hinted at potentially pursuing a Bitcoin reserve strategy , too. It is not far-fetched that some companies looking to pursue a crypto treasury strategy might feel they are late to the party when it comes to Bitcoin – the de facto institutions darling. So far, SOL is the only other crypto asset that has made inroads as a crypto treasury asset for a publicly traded company. NASDAQ-listed Janover Inc. ( JNVR ), has been buying SOL as a treasury asset. Janover now holds 317,273 SOLs worth around $47.5 million at the current SOL spot price. This is an aggressive SOL buying spree by Janover, considering the company started with ~$4.6 million worth of SOL purchases early this month and has now bumped up to $47.5 worth in just a matter of weeks. So what’s creating this type of appeal for Solana? I think it is the fact that Solana has once been entangled in institutional affairs during the FTX fiasco, and also the comeback SOL has seen, being one of the most beat-down crypto assets during the 2022 bear market. Permit me to quote from the popular Montefiore Ad which says, “everyone loves a comeback.” Just like Paul Rivera, SOL now has a new “lung” and a new life, and institutions are beginning to take notice of its revived appeal. With the precedent Janover has set for SOL. If a spot SOL ETF sees approval anytime soon, it will spell more trouble for Ethereum’s flows. Takeaway Ethereum’s institutional narrative is stalling, despite the short-term bounce in the spot ETF inflows, the broader trend suggests that institutional conviction in Ethereum is fading. With no clear catalyst, like staking inclusion, in sight yet, holding any of the spot ETFs including FETH warrants some caution. The spot Ethereum ETFs may continue to lag behind the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Current flows suggest the ETH ETFs are struggling to establish a strong long-term investment narrative.

Source: Seeking Alpha